Week 1: Steelers/Falcons Preview

Mike McCarthy's first game as head coach, and Aaron Rodgers starting what he's already called his last ride. That's plenty of storyline on its own. Then Wednesday happened, and the game got a lot more lopsided on paper. Tua Tagovailoa is out with an oblique injury. Michael Penix Jr., who was supposed to be the guy before his knee wasn't ready, is out too. That leaves Cooper Rush, a career backup, as starting at quarterback for Atlanta in Pittsburgh, on the road, in Week 1.

Why the numbers like Pittsburgh even more now

Books had this game around Steelers -6 before the Falcons' QB situation shook out, then it settled closer to -3.5 to -4 once it was clear Atlanta wasn't going to be starting a shell of a healthy Tua or a not-quite-ready Penix. Different models split the difference — Squawka's got Pittsburgh -4 and 65% to win, other outlets have it closer to -5.5 to -6 depending on the book. Either way, nobody's got the Falcons as favorites here, and Cooper Rush under center is a big reason why.

The trench battle is the real story

Here's the stat that should matter more than either QB's name: Atlanta racked up 57 sacks last season, tops among any team playing this weekend. Pittsburgh's offensive line gave up 31. Rodgers is 42. He does not need to be running for his life against a defensive front that gets after the passer at that rate. If the Steelers can protect him, this game plays out about how everyone expects. If they can't, a 42-year-old quarterback taking hits all afternoon is exactly the kind of thing that turns a comfortable win into a stressful one.

On the other side, Atlanta still has real weapons even with Rush throwing the ball — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts aren't going anywhere. But without a rhythm passer running the show, Atlanta's likely leaning even harder on Robinson to keep drives alive, which plays right into a Steelers front built around Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, and Alex Highsmith.

One name to watch on defense

Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a back injury that looks at least partly related to a contract standoff — he was limited all week and never got to a full practice. That matters specifically because Porter is Pittsburgh's best answer for Drake London, who's the most dangerous matchup Atlanta has left with Rush at quarterback. If Porter can't go, expect Jamel Dean or Asante Samuel Jr. to get that assignment, and expect Jalen Ramsey to slide around more to cover for it. Pittsburgh's also without safety DeShon Elliott for at least the next month, which thins out the back end a little more than fans probably realize.

So how does it actually play out?

Neither of these quarterbacks — Rodgers at 42, Rush stepping in cold — is going to push the ball downfield much. Analysts keep landing on the same read: this is shaping up as a low-scoring, clock-chewing, field-position game, not a shootout. That tracks with recent history between these two teams too — the under has hit in four of the last six meetings, and Pittsburgh's covered in five of the last six.

Give Pittsburgh the edge in the trenches, the edge at quarterback (yes, even 42-year-old Rodgers over Cooper Rush), and the edge at home. Atlanta's still got enough with Robinson and London to make it look competitive for stretches, but this is a game where field position and a couple of red-zone stops probably decide it more than any single highlight play.

Final: Steelers 20, Falcons 13.

Not the prettiest season opener, but a solid, business-like win to start the McCarthy era — and a game where the story isn't really Pittsburgh's plan, it's Atlanta's QB room.